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Photo by: Rwendland

Earlier today Keir Starmer gave his first in-person speech to the Labour Party conference, in what was billed by many in the media as a make or break moment for the Leader of the Opposition in light of Labour’s eternal internal strife. Here are our four key takeaways:

(1) An attempt to recalibrate

Woven throughout Starmer’s maiden in-person speech was a clear emphasis on the need for Labour to recalibrate the message it conveys to the electorate ahead of the next election. The rapturous applause that greeted the list of New Labour achievements reeled off by Starmer felt akin to a watershed moment for a party that, for the last 11 years, has – to its own detriment – sought to denigrate its own record in office under Blair and Brown. Similarly, the parallels between Starmer’s emphasis on security and crime and Tony Blair’s infamous “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” stance were clear for all to see – a smart approach for a former Director of Public Prosecutions to lean on. Whilst the scale of recalibration needed to catapult Labour back into government cannot be overstated, today was a clear sign that Starmer intends to move Labour away from pipedream policies and towards shared values with the electorate.

(2) Buying time

Though not exactly renowned for their political nous, one would have nonetheless thought the last dredges of Momentum may have sensed that frequent heckling would only play into Keir Starmer’s efforts to turn the page on Corbynism. Instead, the constant heckles – including when Starmer spoke of his terminally ill mother – only served to further vindicate Starmer’s conviction that Labour must abandon the core tenets of Corbynism, and with haste. Although his approach to the hecklers did not mirror Neil Kinnock’s infamous 1985 speech, his willingness to criticise the 2019 manifesto as ‘not a serious plan for government’ echoed the same willingness as Kinnock in Bournemouth to drag the Labour party back to political reality.

(3) Integrity vs triviality

In the aftermath of the fallout from Angela Rayner branding Tories ‘scum’, Starmer instead chose to embrace a much more effective critique of Boris Johnson, labelling him “a trivial man” and “a showman with nothing left to show”. No doubt this is a message that has been tested with focus groups, and one that is more likely to resonate with the voters that Labour needs to win back if it is to ever become a party of government again. Even more so when such triviality can so plausibly be contrasted with Starmer’s public image as a man of integrity after a long career as a public prosecutor. In spite of the clear logic behind this approach, however, Starmer must be careful not to fall into the trap that so many of Boris Johnson’s former foes have – underestimating his ability to mask his triviality with a public persona oozing in charisma and audacity.

(4) The building blocks are there, but is the execution?

For those who most need a Labour government, today’s speech was a heartening one. Labour is, for its many self-evident failings, beginning to move in the right direction; away from its fringe and back towards the electorate whom it must convince of its worthiness for office. But after 11 years in opposition, and with the stench of Corbynism still lingering, the task ahead will require a level of execution that Starmer and his team have yet to demonstrate. Articulating what Labour stands for, not just against, will be a key theme of Starmer’s messaging in the years ahead – executing this approach will require his party to fall in line. With the socialist campaign group continuing to undermine Labour’s new direction, coupled with the dire quality of Labour’s remaining frontline MPs, the odds still remain firmly against Keir Starmer.

Our data team analysed articles in local media outlets distributed across Red Wall constituencies. We looked at everything published and then shared on social media since the Conference kicked off. 

To understand what drove engagement, articles were thematically mapped along with their corresponding likes, retweets and comments — enabling our data team to visualise what drove interest in the Red Wall with regard to coverage of the Labour conference.

Overall, proceedings in Brighton have barely cut through, with just over 1% of articles covering the Conference – hardly inspiring given the electoral significance of the Red Wall. 

In a further blow to the Labour Party, Andy Burnham’s outburst has been the most engaged with the topic. Even Angela Rayner’s ‘Tory scum’ antics, which got limited traction, was met with hostility and anger – seeing most comments siding with the Conservative party against Labour’s deputy leader.

  • Sep 23, 2021
  • 4 min read

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This week, we discuss:

  1. Biden administration raises the cap on refugees

  2. China’s real-estate bubble has echoes of 2008

  3. Streaming Wars

Biden administration cap on refugees

What happened?

The Biden administration is seeking to nearly double the number of refugees admitted to the United States, starting October 1st, as per the State Department.

What does it mean?

Under Donald Trump, the refugee cap was reduced to the lowest level in the history of the refugee program – 15,000. After facing backlash for not raising the cap, Biden initially raised the number to 62,500, and has now increased it further to 125,000. The administration’s recommendation cited the necessity to address needs generated by humanitarian crises around the globe as the primary reason for raising the intake.

Whilst the State Department has made their intentions surrounding the cap clear, the matter must go to Congress for a vote. Tony Blinken, Secretary of State, has said that he looks forward to having “a meaningful exchange with Members of Congress” on the administration’s proposed changes.

The change of policy comes as tens of thousands of Afghan refugees wait at US military bases to be resettled in the United States. Considering the heavy criticism over the hasty withdrawal of forces that left behind many Afghan citizens, as well as interpreters and those who helped US forces, the administration may have felt pressure to do more for those stranded.

According to the Refugee Processing Centre, only 7,637 refugees were admitted into the US between October 2020 and August 2021, despite the increase in capacity. Given this meagre intake, it remains to be seen whether the proposed changes will have material impact on the number of those accepted into the US. Should there be no major change, we can expect Biden’s critics to point to this as a virtue signalling exercise lacking meaningful action.

China’s real-estate bubble has echoes of 2008

What happened?

Evergrande – China’s second-largest property development company – is $300 billion in debt. Worry over the company’s ability to repay creditors has resulted in a decrease in share price. Unfortunately, this has had a snowball effect and dealings in the company’s bonds have been suspended.

What does it mean?

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis had its roots in the 2000s US property market boom-and-bust, which spread to European property markets, in turn fuelling the Eurozone Crisis.

As it stands, China builds 15 million new homes every year off the back of a huge expansion of credit. So the question is whether we are about to see a collapse of the Chinese real estate sector triggering another global recession, akin to the 2007/8 crash.

The answer hinges on whether the Chinese government has the means to stem the fall-out from Evergrande. Fortunately, Beijing is in a strong position as many key players in the industry are state-owned, and in any case, the CCP effectively has a carte blanche in what it demands of big business.

Nonetheless, this is still new territory. Novel types of finance have evolved rapidly in China, with provincial governments being highly autonomous – to the extent of holding sway over the financing vehicles central to property deals.

One potential outcome is Xi Jinping reins in the burgeoning crisis at home, but not before sparking a selling-spree in property-based assets abroad. For though there is no intrinsic link between the idiosyncratic situation in China and our own over-priced housing stock, social contagion is a powerful force. Will 2021 be China’s version of 2008? Watch this space.

Streaming Wars

What happened?

DAZN, the sports streaming service owned by billionaire Sir Leonard Blavatnik, is in advanced talks to buy BT’s sports business.

What does it mean?

BT successfully challenged decades of Sky’s dominance over sports broadcasting. And with the arrival of streaming giants like DAZN and Amazon, the market is entering a new era of disruption.

Due to the pro-competitive nature of this deal, there isn’t any indication that the Competition and Markets Authority will intervene in what has recently become an increasingly interventionist environment, despite there being mixed implications for consumers.

On the bright side, tuning in for the North London Derby will no longer be dictated by who your broadband provider is. The emergence of DAZN and Amazon in the market will eliminate the practice of tying broadband and sports packages together. And, at least in the short term, lead to lower prices as they contend for subscribers and market share.

But more competition will ultimately require more subscriptions to watch your team play, which will prove costly in the long run. Bidding for broadcasting rights is an expensive game, meaning DAZN and Amazon will increase their prices as they absorb more of the fixtures list. Eventually consumers may well pine for the days when Sky was a one-stop-shop for all things sport.

The real winner in this deal is BT, whose share price rocketed after the news emerged. Ultimately, BT had their finger in too many pies and could no longer justify the Premier League price tag, which is best left to tech-outfits like DAZN with private equity cash to burn. Instead, BT can turn their attention to far more strategically important investments that serve the public good: levelling-up Britain’s connectivity by rolling out more 5G and full-fibre.

This Week’s Must Reads

  1. ‘Autumn budget must show financial firepower behind “levelling up”‘ by Richard Partington for The Guardian

  2. ‘Why Biden bet it all on mandates’ by Peter Nicholas for The Atlantic

  3. ‘The UK faces an energy crisis. Could nuclear play a vital role?’ by Jonathan Ford for The Financial Times

  4. ‘How long will Rishi Sunak last?’ by Andrew Adonis for Prospect

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