Twitter Sentiment Around the Tory Party Conference

With the Conservative Party conference almost wrapped up, the data team at Trafalgar Strategy took a look back at the sentiment expressed on Twitter towards Cabinet Ministers.

First off, the Prime Minister overwhelmingly dominated the Twitter-sphere appearing in over half of all sampled tweets (410k) – yet the Home Secretary Priti Patel pipped the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak into the second place in terms of unique mentions.

Alongside the Chancellor, we found Lord Frost, the Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss and the Health Secretary Sajid Javid all appearing prominently in the Twitter conversation around Conference.

When we looked at the sentiment around each minister, unsurprisingly, The Prime Minister and Home secretary received short shrift from the Twitterati. If the Prime Minister’s parody ‘Build Back’ videos were an attempt to try and turn the tide – it appears to have partially worked – with more users liking than criticising the videos.

Lord Frost – who as Chief Brexit negotiator is now kryptonite to Remainers – received a similar negative reaction on Twitter to the Prime Minister. However, the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Health Secretary benefited from a more measured response – in part because they weren’t so prominent in the debate. Combined, all three appear in just over 15% of tweets.

Sentiment alone tells only half the story – and when engagement is factored in, the tweets driving engagement around each minister appear broadly negative for almost all ministers.

#Data #Politics #SocialMedia

Under The Radar – 01 October

By Element5 for Unsplash

This week, we discuss:

1. The first female Prime Minister in the Arab World

2. A fortuitous victory for the SDP in Germany

3. Japan’s newest Prime Minister

The first female Prime Minister in the Arab World

What happened?

Tunisia’s president, Kais Saied, has named the first female prime minister in the country’s history. Najla Bouden Romdhane’s appointment comes as a first not only for the country, but also for the region, as no woman has held the premiership in the Arab world before. What does it mean? In a symbolic sense, this is certainly an important step, as millions of women across the country will be able to see themselves in the image of the PM.  Bouden Romdhane is a geophysics professor and has worked at the Ministry of Education implementing World Bank projects. However, she remains a relatively unknown figure in the world of politics, so her appointment came as a surprise to many. Despite being a first for the Arab world, her role as PM remains little more than a symbolic achievement that is eclipsed by the fact that Tunisia has, over the past summer, undergone a reorganisation of its power structure, with the president sacking the previous PM and suspending certain parts of the constitution.  Saied has essentially been ruling by decree, in what his political opponents have called a coup. Thus, Romdhane’s appointment arrives at a time of political uncertainty, when the democratic gains achieved during the 2011 Arab Spring revolution seem for many to be at risk. Whether the new premier will make a difference – for women and democracy – remains to be seen.

A fortuitous victory for the SDP in Germany

What happened? Germany’s federal election took place on Sunday, in what was a tight race between the outgoing Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD), with the SPD securing a narrow victory.

What does this mean? Though the SDP claimed victory, it would be a mistake to regard this as a successful set of results for a few reasons. Firstly, there isn’t a provision in the constitution that allows the largest party to unilaterally select the Chancellor, which means numerous coalitions are possible. The tightness of this contest combined with Germany’s partial Proportional Representation system, means the Greens and the Free Liberals, who received 26% of the vote between them, will be kingmakers in any government. Secondly, the SPD, who despite playing second fiddle to the centre-right CDU since 2005, should have benefitted from being one of only two major parties in German politics since the 1990s. Losing 26% of potential voters to two much smaller parties, including the 6.8 million centre left voters who went Green, is a concern. Finally, the SDP were dealt a lucky hand. The Christian Democrats and Greens chose weak, unpopular candidates for the Chancellorship. Indeed, until a few months ago, they were on track for their worst electoral performance in more than 70 years. The political reality is that this election is less a ringing endorsement of the SDP, and more a vote against the discredited alternatives. The SDP must make the most of this fortuitous victory if they are to become a credible force in German politics again.

Japan’s newest Prime Minister

What happened?

Fumio Kishida, former foreign minister, has won his party’s leadership competition, putting him on course to replace outgoing Yoshihide Suga as Japan’s Prime Minister. The tightly contested race ended in a runoff vote that saw Kishida triumph over outspoken, popular maverick candidate, Taro Kono.  Kishida will now lead his beleaguered party in the upcoming General Election.   What does it mean? Wednesday’s leadership contest was a much tighter fight than expected.  It was also the first time the party elections have fielded multiple female candidates – in a country where just 14% of parliamentary seats are occupied by women. This progress was limited though, as the two female candidates, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda, bowed out in the first round of voting.  Opinion polls suggested that the public were eager for change, backing the outspoken American-educated Taro Kono. Fumio Kishida, on the other hand, had little public backing, but was seen as a consensus builder and a safe set of hands.  Fumio Kishida will take over from Yoshihide Suga and will try to turn around his predecessor’s struggling government before a General Election that must be held by the end of November.  The Liberal Democrat Party needed a reliable leader that the Japanese could trust following Suga’s unpopular decision to press ahead with the Tokyo Olympics in defiance of public opinion. In Kishida, they’ve opted for a safety-first candidate – does he have what it takes? 

This Week’s Must Reads

1. ‘Labour looks aimless because it’s already searching for Starmer’s replacement’ by Rafael Behr for The Guardian

2. ‘We’re already barreling toward the next pandemic’ by Ed Yong for The Atlantic

3. ‘Britain is paying the price for pushing should-be manual workers into university education’ by Ross Clark for The Telegraph

4. ‘The strange death of American democracy’ by Martin Wolf for The Financial Times

Chart of The Week

Subscribe

* indicates required

Email Address *

First Name

Last Name

Job Title

Company

Industry

Has the far-left lost its grip on the Labour Party?

As pundits poured over Starmer’s maiden in-person speech to the Labour Party conference, our data team trawled through the reactions on social media. Over 150k tweets were analysed and then visualised, see above. In the graph, each point represents a Twitter account and its size is based on engagement levels.

Overall, Keir Starmer can start to breathe a sigh of relief. Thanks to the efforts of Angela Rayner and Alastair Campbell, a pro-Starmer line quickly gained traction in the aftermath.

Starmer should be wary of Corbyn loyalists who are not quite ready to give up on the far-lefty project. John McDonnell, Diane Abbott and Jon Trickett all came out in a seemingly orchestrated move to remind the Twittersphere that Starmer – contrary to his speech – supported the 2019 Labour manifesto. Despite all three tweets performing well, they ultimately failed to outperform Starmer’s allies on the day.

However, what should concern Starmer is an attack from Lowkey, a vocal and loyal Corbyn acolyte whose tweet – attacking Starmer for his failure to prosecute sexual assault cases when Director of Public Prosecutions – had the most engagement on the day.

Yet most concerning – for Starmer and Labour strategists – should be the reaction to a tweet from Angel Rayner attempting to reclaim Labour’s working-class roots. When we dug into the comments, we found a sizable backlash from disgruntled Twitter users — angrily pointing out Starmer’s failure to back the £15 minimum wage, his support for the EU or the party’s abandonment of working-class communities.

#Data #Politics #SocialMedia