The line on ‘Partygate’ doesn’t fit the crime

Issue: ‘Partygate’

Your boss (i.e. the Prime Minister) has been issued a fixed penalty notice for attending a party in contravention of the government’s (i.e. his) Covid regulations. This is one of several problematic gatherings the Prime Minister is suspected of attending. The Prime Minister will be addressing the House of Commons to respond to this historic occasion (he is the first sitting PM to be found to have broken the law while in office).

Context

Partygate has been hammering your boss for months now. It’s only with the war in Ukraine – and process cover afforded by the Met Police investigation – that coverage has slowed. For weeks now, the line has been to ignore ‘partygate’ because other issues – Ukraine, cost of living – require the Prime Minister and government’s full attention making now not the ideal time to change horses.

As the PM prepares to address the House, it remains unclear whether the Metropolitan Police will be issuing further notices for any other gatherings. Meanwhile, former Cabinet Office mandarin Sue Gray is yet to publish her report into the parties (completed before the Met announced their investigation). Adding further uncertainty is the fact ex-No.10 staff Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain might also brief further damaging material should the Prime Minister be seen to be escaping sanction.

The ‘line to take’

“It’s not as if [Boris Johnson] walked into a rave in Ibiza.”

1. A senior government source

Line review

Our initial response: Yikes. 

For one, the tone is waaaaay too dismissive. It also leaves several obvious rejoinders including: ‘It’s not as if people could see their dying loved ones in hospital at the time.’ For that matter, it also reminds voters of all of the travel they had to forsake because of the pandemic.

To be fair, there is no ‘great’ line to take given the relatively poor cards held by No. 10 on partygate, which is why No. 10 have been appealing for a sense of perspective in their briefings, per the above line. And while the fixed penalty notice received by the Prime Minister clearly isn’t equivalent to, say, murder, it is a violation of the law, a first for an occupant of No. 10. Then there is the related question of whether the PM misled Parliament in his responses to questions about partygate – which is the most serious wrongdoing a PM can commit under our system of government. 

The trouble with No. 10’s line is that even the most minor of parties is a major party given most people in the country were not only not partying at the time, but also not attending any funerals, weddings, or leaving their house, on to the recommendation – and this is the important bit – of the government and public health experts at the time.

Put differently, most people aren’t judging on an ‘Ibiza vs. quiet back garden gathering’ scale, i.e. as a matter of degree, they’re judging on a ‘right vs. wrong’ scale, i.e. as a matter of principle. A better line would have acknowledged the principle and *then* brazened it out. 

The line is also a hostage to fortune; it suggests that a more vibrant party – even if not quite Ibiza-esque – would be problematic and worthy of sanction/approbation. It invites voters to judge each gathering on No. 10’s Ibiza scale. This is obviously a problem when the Met has yet to issue fixed penalty notices for other parties we know of that are, on their face, more problematic than the cabinet room cake party for which the PM (and chancellor) have already been sanctioned.

Line rating:

Blinder

Strong

Does the job

Problematic

Piss poor ✅

Under The Radar – 15 April

Good morning,

Under The Radar was launched at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic with the noble aim of shining a light on the important stories that were being overlooked by a scrambled media landscape. On a weekly basis since April 2020, we’ve covered the key stories emerging at the busy intersection between politics, business and the media.

But with the pandemic no longer leading the news bulletins, it’s time for us to retire Under The Radar. It had a great run.

Instead, we will be bringing something new and more relevant to today’s media environment to your inboxes.

Trafalgar Strategy is launching a brand new newsletter: The Rebuttal. In it, we will spotlight how politicians, public figures, brands and businesses are using language and different media channels to communicate their way through crises.

You may be wondering, why?

We are living in an unprecedented time. Your conduct and your choice of words has never been under greater scrutiny. This is powered by digital platforms that accelerate the speed at which crisis spreads. In the current environment, it’s never been more important for individuals and businesses to understand the do’s and don’ts of crisis communications.

At Trafalgar Strategy, we help clients navigate this environment every day. We are excited to showcase our expertise and give you a peek behind the curtain, so please do keep careful look out for the inaugural edition of The Rebuttal, coming to your inboxes soon.

For now, please enjoy the final edition of Under The Radar.

This week we discuss:

1. Don’t look up

2. Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream

3. Another dodgy government contract

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Don’t look up

What happened?

Chile has announced a plan to ration water in the rivers that supply its capital, Santiago, as the nation-wide drought enters its thirteenth year. What does it mean? Chile is on the frontline of the global climate catastrophe. Unlike most countries, they have elected a government that takes it seriously. The short-term plan to manage the crisis is a four-tier alert system that begins with public service announcements, moves on to restricting water pressure, and concludes with rotating water cuts of up to 24 hours. The country’s water availability has dropped by 10 per cent to 37 per cent over the last 30 years, and there are concerns it could drop a further 50 per cent in northern and central parts of the country by 2060. Just last month, the Peñuelas Lake, the supplier of drinking water for nearly two million people, officially dried up. This will no doubt lead to huge flows of migration – something which Western leaders still do not seem to understand as they fail to get to grips with governing in the era of climate catastrophe. The Chilean government, however, is committed to tackling the impact of climate change head on. The newly elected Socialist president Gabriel Boric – who appropriately resembles Leonardo Di Caprio’s character in Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up”, an apocalyptic allegory for the climate catastrophe – has assembled a progressive cabinet and a formidable green agenda, including plans to bring forward a ban on the installation of new coal-fired power plants from 2040 to 2025. However impressive, Chile cannot act alone. Perhaps the most difficult task for Boric’s new government is to convince other regional players, including Brazil’s notorious far-right Jair Bolsonaro, to realise the solar and wind potential in South America’s vast open landscapes and stretching coastlines.

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Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream

What happened? The psychedelic compound in magic mushrooms, Psilocybin, has been found to help patients struggling with depression, researchers at the Imperial Centre for Psychedelic Research said. Psilocybin is thought to produce a sort of ‘opening up effect’, helping those with psychiatric disorders escape negative thinking patterns.

What does it mean? The findings published in Nature Medicine are an important step forward in treating mental illnesses like depression, providing a promising alternative approach to traditional treatments. Psilocybin is one of many psychoactive components being tested across several studies, examining their effects compared to conventional antidepressants like escitalopram. In the recent study, some patients took synthetic psilocybin, while others took escitalopram. The former induced changes in brain connectivity that were not similarly discovered in the brains of those using antidepressants. This alteration in brain connectivity is what scientists are referring to as ‘flexibility’. According to the latest findings, not only does psilocybin make the brain act more ‘flexibly’ compared to escitalopram, but its effects also last much longer. However, as Professor Robin Carhart-Harris, a senior study author said, despite the encouraging results researchers are not sure why or how the therapy worked. He added that there needs to be more research on how long this ‘rewiring’ effect lasts, which would help us understand more of how mental illness and treatments affect the brain. As the mental health crisis shows no sign of abating, and governments around the world fail to adequately tackle it, this breakthrough should be welcomed. However, whatever you do, don’t attempt to self-medicate – you may find yourself on a trip not worth taking.

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Another dodgy government contract

What happened? The Government has handed a new £500 million contract to Fujitsu, the computer firm at the heart of the Post Office scandal. What does it mean? In one of the most public and drawn-out scandals in recent history, faulty software used for accounting at Post Offices led to hundreds of sub-postmasters being accused of stealing from the department. The accusations led to wrongful criminal convictions that destroyed lives, forced people out of their homes, and even led to suicides. Computer firm Fujitsu, worth £58bn, was responsible for the faulty software called Horizon – yet they have largely dodged public accountability for the scandal. Despite its track record and central role in this shocking miscarriage of justice, Fujitsu continues to bag lucrative government contracts. Most recently, they have been handed a new £500 million contract for IT services similar to those of Horizon. Public records show that the IT firm has been raking in taxpayer money – including a £44m contract with the Foreign Office, a £6.1m deal for the upcoming Commonwealth Games, and a £665,000 contract with DCMS. Despite the claims of the government’s spokesperson, Baroness Bloomfield, that Fujitsu is no longer a “preferred supplier to the Government”, the company has been awarded contracts worth over £3 billion since 2013. The company still being in receipt of taxpayer funds whilst victims have struggled in their fight for justice has, quite rightly, sparked fury across the political spectrum. In a period of famously ‘dodgy’ government contracts, ranging from Track & Trace consultants to VIP PPE lanes, this might just be the most despicable and ill-thought out.

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This Week’s Must Reads

1. “The Chinese companies trying to buy strategic islands” by Kathrin Hille for The Financial Times

2. “The United Nations has the power to punish Putin. This is how it can be done” by Simon Tisdall for The Guardian

3. “The evolution of Marine Le Pen” by Andrew Hussey for The New Statesman

4. “What Boris Johnson must do if he is ever to recover from Partygate” by David Frost for The Telegraph

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Under The Radar – 8 April

Source: Pierre Borthiry via Unsplash

This week we discuss:

1. Are you Corbyn in disguise?

2. Like it’s 1982

3. You can’t cancel the Costa Rican President

Are you Corbyn in disguise?

What happened?

As part of the newly unveiled energy security strategy, the government will bring part of the National Grid back into public ownership in order to help reach net zero targets.

What does it mean?

The National Grid will sell its utility arm, the Electricity System Operator, back to the government, in order to form a new public body – the Future System Operator.

This newly created body will have responsibility for planning and managing energy distribution, with a particular focus on the challenges and changes the grid will face as we move towards a decarbonised economy.

The announcement comes following significant worry from government and consumers alike over Britain’s preparedness to be both a net-zero and an energy independent nation. Sky-rocketing energy bills and a war in Ukraine that has highlighted our reliance on foreign nations for our energy needs has put energy firmly at the top of the government’s agenda. Bringing the National Grid back under the public remit could be seen as a sign of how seriously they are taking the task ahead, or potentially that there is panic over the scale of the task…

It has long been suggested that the National Grid was unprepared for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Unlike gas and coal plants, which can be fired up when needed to meet additional demands, many of the energy sources the government now wants to prioritise do not come with this luxury. Nuclear power plants produce energy 24/7, no matter what the demand is, and renewables like wind and solar are as unpredictable as the weather.

How to plan and manage all of this, whilst still meeting growing electricity demands will be one of the biggest challenges the new Future System Operator will face.

Like it’s 1982

What happened?

Santiago Cafiero, the Argentine foreign minister, has criticised the UK for refusing to engage in dialogue over the future of the Falkland Islands.

What does it mean?

In a statement released on the 40th anniversary of the Argentine invasion of the islands in April 1982, the foreign minister has claimed that Argentinian-British relations will not improve if the UK does not engage in talks on the future sovereignty of the Falkland Islands.

Cafiero claims “the 1982 conflict did not alter the nature of the dispute between both countries, which is still pending negotiation and resolution.” The foreign minister reminded the British government that prior to the 1982 invasion there had been sixteen years of negotiation regarding the sovereignty of the islands.

The British government is yet to respond to Cafiero’s statement. The plebiscite conducted in 2013 which revealed that 99.8% of Falkland islanders wish to remain British forms the cornerstone of the British diplomatic position on the islands.

This is the second time in a month that the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands has been raised in international dialogue. In February, China released a statement declaring that Argentina should be able to “fully exercise its sovereignty over the [Falklands] Islands issue”, to which the Argentinian president Alberto Fernández responded with support to President Xi’s one-China policy, which claims Taiwan as a part of mainland China.

Set against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – in which Putin seeks to claim the independent state as a part of a wider Russian bloc – this dialogue is even more concerning. The West must remain united against the attack on Ukrainian sovereignty, as success for Putin could be interpreted as a green light for expansionist states the world over.

You can’t cancel the Costa Rican President

What happened?

Costa Rica has elected its new president, the right-wing economist Rodrigo Chaves. His aggressive style has seen him compared to former US president Donald Trump. What does it mean? Political stagnation has long existed in the country – perhaps a side-effect of the stability and relative prosperity Costa Rica has enjoyed, particularly when compared to some other countries in the region.

However, there are significant issues for the next president to tackle, with unemployment standing at 15% and the country’s lucrative ecotourism industry struggling to recover from the impact of the pandemic. The other candidate, José María Figueres, was a favourite for the presidency, having previously taken up the office between 1994 and 1998. However, his image has been tainted by a corruption scandal, which, coupled with the rise of anti-establishment politics and no real innovative message to offer to voters, has proven to be enough to sink his campaign. But Chaves’ image isn’t squeaky clean either. He has previously faced sexual harassment accusations during his time working for the World Bank, which eventually drove him out of the institution. Returning to Costa Rica in 2011, he later became finance minister under current president Carlos Alvarado Quesada. Chaves is now promising to rework a financial support deal with the IMF, while strengthening the economy, creating more jobs and focusing on healthy public finances. Whether his technocratic approach brings back the spirit of “Pura Vida” the country has long been famous for, remains to be seen.

This Week’s Must Reads

1. “The world-changing meaning of Putin” by Edward Luce for The Financial Times

2. “Akshata Murty’s non-dom status is totally legal – and perfectly toxic for Rishi Sunak” by Gaby Hinsliff for The Guardian

3. “Nicola Sturgeon’s secret state” by James Heale and Michael Simmons for The Spectator

4. “After the disaster of lockdown, children are being failed again” by James Kirkup for The Times

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