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Aug 20, 2021
3 min read

This week, we discuss:

  1. The Government’s intervention in the planned £2.6bn takeover of Ultra Electronics

  2. Increased productivity in the US

  3. Boston’s historic Mayoral election

US Private Equity Swoops in on UK Defence Sector 

What happened?

The British Government has intervened in the planned £2.6bn takeover of Ultra Electronics, a UK-based defence company who supply the Royal Navy, by rival Cobham which is owned by US Private Equity firm Advent International.

What does it mean?

By allowing the acquisition of UK defence companies, Britain loses out on a huge amount of intellectual property (IP) that is critical for defence and military purposes. This reduces our ability to advance military technology and industry, whilst the knock-on effects hold Britain back from re-establishing itself as a leading innovator. All in all, it’s not great for ‘Global Britain’ or ‘levelling-up’.

But pressure on the government to become more interventionist is having the desired effect. Ultra Electronics continues a trend of interventionist policies over the past year by the Conservative government, who are now in the habit of defying regulatory boards’ suggestions. The National Security and Investment Act, which comes into force in January 2022, vests power in ministers, not competition authorities, to block takeovers in seventeen areas including energy, transport, and communications, on the grounds of national security.

With US private equity being frustrated and current scrutiny of the situation in Afghanistan, particularly relating to the UK following America’s lead in deciding to pull out, commentators are beginning to question the extent to which Britain should be beholden to US interests.

Is it time for the so-called ‘special relationship’ to be reconsidered?

The Covid School of Economics

What happened?

New data published Tuesday showed a 2.3 percent annual rate of productivity growth in the US in the second quarter of this year, compared with 1.4 percent from 2005 to 2019.

What does it mean?

Over the last decade, productivity growth in the West was extremely poor. Consequently, these societies saw stagnant wages, growing inequality, and a political malaise borne of discontent.

While the U.K.’s furlough scheme means that our productivity statistics don’t give the clear indication that they otherwise would, the ONS produces a measure of output per job that excludes the furlough factor, which has indeed risen. So, why has Covid-19 counterintuitively caused a sudden burst of productivity in the US and seemingly also in the UK?

One likely explanation is that while the pandemic destroyed jobs, it also created labour shortages. And this forced the hand of employers, who have long procrastinated putting in the time and money to find more efficient ways to operate. If this is the dominant factor in the productivity boom, then the political significance of Covid-19 may be felt for a long while to come.

The pandemic could well prove to have been the trigger that clearly demonstrated – contra to free-market orthodoxy – the benefits of labour restrictions not only to select groups of workers, but to the economic health of the nation more generally.

Boston City on the cusp of historic first election

What happened?

Boston is on the brink of a historic Mayoral election, with an all-ethnic minority short-list of candidates remaining in the race.

What does it mean?

Boston is one of the last remaining big US cities to have only elected white men as their mayor, but a nearly two-hundred-year streak is now certain to end with this historic upcoming election. All five candidates in the preliminary race are people of colour, including four women.

Boston is a city that has struggled with racial tensions and has developed a reputation for being “one of the most unequal places in America”. The city was in the spotlight in the 1970s for violent desegregation protests, and inequality has remained persistent ever since. In 2015, it was reported that the median net worth of white Bostonians was $247,000, whilst the net worth of African American Bostonians, who make up 25% of the local population, was just $8.

The short list of candidates, including two black women, has been hailed as a turning point for the city. The race has, however, not been without controversy – candidate Andrea Campbell faced calls to stand down in order to avoid “splitting the black vote”. In response to this, she spoke out, arguing that “black women are not a monolith”.

Unfortunately, identity politics is once again overshadowing more important debates, especially which candidate has the best programme to tackle deep rooted economic inequality.

This Week’s Must Reads

  1. ‘How America Failed In Afghanistan’ by Isaac Chotiner for The New Yorker

  2. ‘Green issues expose Tory division and loner Boris Johnson’s distance from his party’ by Isabel Hardman for The Guardian

  3. ‘How corporations rebrand poverty?’ by Leo McKinstry for The Spectator

  4. ‘Iran’s drones give Houthis an edge in Yemen war’ by Richard Spencer for The Times

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Aug 13, 2021
4 min read

Greg Bulla on Unsplash

This week, we discuss:

  1. Crunch negotiations between the SNP and Green Party

  2. Saudi Aramco bounces back with soaring profits

  3. The Democrats’ illegal migrants dilemma

SNP-Green Deal Under Pressure 

What happened?

The SNP and Green Party are in crunch negotiations to secure a deal before Nicola Sturgeon reveals the government’s legislative agenda at the end of the month. However, not all appears to be going smoothly.

What does it mean?

The most obvious implication of a formalised deal is that it would create a pro-independence majority within the Scottish government. The coalition will be hoping that a formal arrangement may put pressure on the UK government, yet there’s little indication that Boris Johnson is softening to the idea of a referendum any time soon.

Government officials are keen to put a final deal before cabinet on Tuesday 17 August, but points of contention risk putting the deal in jeopardy. The SNP are eager to present a united front on climate issues ahead of COP26 in Glasgow, however the Greens refused to vote for last term’s climate bill, slamming the targets for lacking ambition. Instead, the party is applying “maximum pressure” on the Scottish government regarding the future of North Sea oil.

An attempt to paper over the cracks could backfire on both parties. The SNP risk embarrassment on the climate agenda if their own governing partners speak out against their lack of action and ambition, but if the Greens roll over and sacrifice key principles, they risk repeating the mistakes previously made by the Liberal Democrats on tuition fees. Who will be the first to flinch?

Aramco comes back fighting

What happened?

Saudi Aramco, the Kingdom’s energy giant, has seen its profits soar by 300%. Posting their Q2 results, the state-backed oil company revealed net income almost quadrupled from the same period last year to $25.5bn and that it was maintaining its dividend at $18.8bn.

What does it mean?

Aramco’s financial results have surprised many analysts, who predicted a modest bounce-back. The pandemic and spectre of new COVID-19 variants continues to loom over the energy sector, and there were expectations this would dent Aramco’s income. Indeed, when oil prices plunged as travel restrictions took hold, Aramco’s profits nosedived by 25%.

Saudi Arabia’s “crown jewel” has also been a target for hostile actors. Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked Aramco’s facilities with drones and missiles, whilst last month their systems were hit by a cyber-attack. Despite all this, Aramco achieved “100 percent reliability in the delivery of crude oil”.

Aramco has solidified its position as the most profitable oil company in the world, while Western companies face pressure from governments, investors, and the public to switch to renewable energy.

These results will not sit well with anyone concerned by Monday’s UN climate report, but they will delight the de-facto ruler Mohammed Bin Salman. The Saudi government is the majority shareholder of Aramco by quite a distance, and the dividends will make a big contribution to the Crown Prince’s expensive ‘Vision 2030’ reform projects.

Trouble on the horizon for the Democrats

What happened?

The US Department for Homeland Security submitted an August 2nd declaration as part of ongoing litigation regarding illegal immigration. The document shows that around 210,000 undocumented migrants were apprehended at the Southern border in July.

What does it mean?

This is the most migrants U.S. border authorities have encountered since March 2000, when Border Patrol reported 220,063 apprehensions. Indeed, in the first half of 2021, the number of “enforcement actions” preventing illegal entry were double the total number for 2020, reaching a 20-year record of over one million. Both Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Guatemala’s Alejandro Giammattei attribute this to “expectations” raised by Biden’s presidency.

They are not the only ones. Overall public support for the Administration’s immigration stance has been in free fall since Spring. By May, more than two-thirds (Pew Research) of Americans disapproved of Biden’s handling of the crisis. And Vice President Kamala Harris has not helped matters, failing to visit the border for months, even as her own approval ratings tanked.

Of especial significance to Biden’s political capital is growing hostility in Hispanic border communities. The electoral risk this portends was made clear last November, when Trump gained Hispanic support, particularly around the Texas border.

Alas, Biden is in a dilemma. He can keep adhering to the ideological pieties of a professional and media class who look aghast at immigration restrictions. But he will pay a pretty price – alienating working-class voters (of all ethnicities) at the next election.

This Week’s Must Reads

  1. ‘The IPCC report is a massive alert that the time for climate action is nearly gone, but crucially not gone yet’ by Greg Jericho for The Guardian

  2. ‘North Korea: the failure of ‘maximum pressure’ on Kim’s isolated regime’ by Edward White for the Financial Times

  3. ‘Did The White House Knowingly Leave Afghanistan In Chaos? If So, What Are The Possible Outcomes?’ by Melik Kaylan for Forbes

  4. ‘Funny old priorities’ by Ben Sixsmith for The Critic

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Aug 9, 2021
3 min read

Christina on Unsplash

In this week’s Digital Digest, we look at the use of AI to help fight COVID-19 and JPI Media’s local TV tie-up.

We then take a look at big tech, as Twitter teams up with Reuters and Associated Press to fight fake news and Facebook comes under fire for banning academics researching transparency and misinformation.

Closer To Home

Hundreds of AI tools have been built to catch Covid-19. None of them helped.

The pandemic offered an opportunity for machine-learning algorithms to help doctors understand what they were seeking and make decisions, however it never happened – but not for lack of effort says MIT Technology review.

Two major studies assessed hundreds of predictive tools to diagnose patients and assess how sick those with the virus might get. What it found was that none of these tools were fit for clinical use, with some being labelled as “potentially harmful”. MIT says that unrealistic expectations result in AI tools being used prematurely.

The research has highlighted that the way in which AI tools are developed needs to change, with simple fixes being identified and easily applied.

JPI Media to expand online into eight major UK markets with Local TV partnership

Under its new owner, JPI Media has announced plans to become a “truly national network of local news brands” by expanding into seven major UK cities and Wales. The expansion includes eight new websites, including the National World website which aims to rival The Independent.

JPI has said that the new websites, combined with their newspaper brands, will grant them access to 80% of the UK market. This comes in the wake of National World’s announcement it wants to double its online audience by the end of 2022.

Big Tech

Twitter teams with wire services to elevate accurate news stories and de-emphasize misinformation and disinformation

Twitter’s deal with the Associated Press and Reuters is aimed at expanding its existing work to explain why certain topics trend, correct and expose misinformation, and highlight information from trusted sources.

Instead of waiting for a topic to go viral, Twitter will be able to “contextualise developing discourse at pace with or in anticipation of the public conversation”. The social media giant has said that the news agencies will be able to provide accurate information, in real time, which is essential for disputing facts and providing context on topics gaining widespread traction.

This move is particularly relevant in the aftermath of the US Presidential elections and pandemic where social media sites were rife with misinformation and ‘fake news’ adding to the confusion and scaremongering across the world.

Facebook bans academics who researched ad transparency and misinformation on Facebook

Facebook has banned a group of academics, who were part of NYU Ad Observatory, for violating their terms of service by scraping user data to research ad transparency and the spread of misinformation. The conglomerate has faced backlash for silencing those who have exposed problems on the platform, with Laura Edelson, an NYU researcher involved, saying the company “wants to end independent scrutiny of its platform”.

The data collected was made publicly available to those who reveal trends and problems, removing any personally-identifying information beforehand. Some disclosures have resulted in major discoveries including how far-right misinformation is more engaging than centre/left sources, and Facebook’s failure to disclose who pays for political ads.

Also In The News

  1. Elon Musk goes head to head with BT in a fight to rid rural Britain of sluggish broadband. See here

  2. Shares in two of China’s biggest online gaming firms -Tencent and NetEase – fell more than 10% after a state media outlet called them “electronic drugs”. See here.

  3. Bill Bailey channels Spinal Tap in Currys PC World ad as he prepares to host a new online show. See here.

  4. Facebook failed to enforce its own rules to curb an oil and gas industry misinformation campaign, according to thinktank InfluenceMap. See here.

  5. Major social media platforms fail to take down more than 80% of anti-Semitic posts on their platforms, a new report from the CCDH claims. See here.

Worth A Read

  1. Marketing Week: What engagement means for brands like Just Eat

  2. The Telegraph: Meet the cyber mercenaries – and the activists trying to stop them

  3. The Drum: Global study reveals post-pandemic consumer behaviours, expectations and concerns

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