Under The Radar – 05 November

By Clay Banks for Unsplash

This week, we discuss:

1. Republican Wins Virginia Governor’s Race

2. Humanitarian Disaster in Ethiopia

3. The Return of Air Travel?

Republican Wins Virginia Governor’s Race

What Happened?

The Democrats suffered a blow on Wednesday morning when they lost the Virginia governorship, as Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe in a state President Biden carried by 10 points.

What does it mean?

This election had widely been framed as an early referendum on Biden’s presidency. And this couldn’t have come at a worse time, with the vote coinciding with the President’s approval rating sinking to 42% as his legislative agenda stalled in Congress. The defeat will unnerve Democrats, who are facing an uphill battle to maintain control of the House and Senate in next year’s midterm elections. Biden’s social safety net and climate plan were already facing difficulties, with West Virginia centrist Senator, Joe Manchin, refusing to vote for the trillion-dollar social spending bill. Some have argued that this result may spook Democrats in swing seats that leaning too far to the left could leave them vulnerable to a Republican insurgency. Yet Republicans won here by stoking cultural issues – namely critical race theory – not Biden’s economic agenda. In reality, this result should force Democrats to get on with the job of governing. On the campaign trail, activists couldn’t point to any progress on Biden’s agenda, whilst the party top brass preferred to centre the entire campaign on fearmongering about Trump. This strategy won’t be enough to keep hold of congress next year. On the other hand, this election signals the way forward for Republican candidates. Youngkin successfully kept Trump onside, but at arm’s length. He didn’t allow the former President to campaign in the state but adopted much of his rhetoric and happily accepted his endorsement. This appears to have kept enough moderate Republicans and independents on side, especially in the suburbs, without alienating the rural base. Regardless of the noise surrounding this result, it doesn’t predetermine the midterms next year. The winner of those elections will be the party that most ruthlessly applies the lessons illuminated by this one.

Humanitarian Disaster in Ethiopia

What happened? Ethiopia has declared a nationwide state of emergency after forces from the northern state of Tigray threatened to march towards the capital, Addis Ababa. On Monday, the government even called on citizens to register weapons and defend the city.

What does this mean?

Ethiopia has been in a state of violent conflict for the past year, with several human rights abuses being reported even though international press and the UN have essentially been banned from the country and the disputed regions. Independent human rights groups and organisations claim that tens of thousands of people have died already due to war and starvation. The Tigray forces’ spokesperson, however, has attempted to play down these claims, unconvincingly arguing that they are “absolutely untrue, at least on the level these organisations are alleging”. The United Nations has called for peace in the region, with the European Union and the US threatening trade sanctions. However, these moves would only push the country further into violence and chaos, since ethnic and regional conflicts are unlikely to be resolved by appealing to the common good. The Tigray forces are attempting to regain control of Ethiopia, after holding it for 27 years until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office and sidelined them. Unfortunately, with the current lack of global leadership or willingness to intervene in complex foreign conflicts, the situation in Ethiopia is likely to deteriorate further.

The Return of Air Travel?

What happened?

The airline industry was one of the most pandemic ravaged sectors. Yet there are signs that the industry is enjoying a revival, with Wizz Air announcing a return to profit and Ryanair adding 250 new routes this winter. What does it mean?

The airline industry has come a long way from June 2020, when UK air travel had reduced by 97% and revenue losses mounted to £20.1 billion. EasyJet subsequently posted a 90% reduction in revenues during the last three months of 2020, matched by an 87% decline in passenger numbers. However, there have been strong signs of a rebound for the industry this week. Wizz Air has turned a profit for the first time since 2019, having returned to pre-pandemic passenger numbers, whilst Ryanair is in an expansive mood. Despite the Irish operator’s passenger numbers still lagging below pre-pandemic figures, in a show of confidence the airline is launching more than 250 new routes this winter with 116 airports in 34 countries. Airlines appear to be taking a leaf out of the Prime Minister’s playbook by adopting a dash a boosterism in their business strategy and communications – a clever ploy to maintain brittle consumer confidence in air travel this winter. And whilst the next few months will undoubtedly be challenging, this week’s news is a vote of confidence for air travel following a very difficult eighteen months.

This week’s must reads

1. ‘Britannia Chained: why the legacy of Brexit threatens Boris Johnson’s Global Britain’ by Tim Ross for The New Statesman

2. ‘Cop26 has to be about keeping fossil fuels in the ground. All else is a distraction’ by George Monbiot for The Guardian

3. ‘Do we trust MPs? They’re about to find out’ by Paul Goodman for The Times

4. ‘Feckless Biden’s presidency is already a failure’ by Con Coughlin for The Telegraph

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Who cut through in the run-up to COP26?

As COP26 kicked off, the data team at Trafalgar Strategy tracked and analysed the conversations that developed on Twitter. Over a one month period immediately preceding the start of COP26, they found over 2 million tweets that mentioned the conference.

Greta Thunberg was the most prominent voice on Twitter and had several tweets go viral in the build-up to the conference, using her platform to urge world leaders to face up to the climate emergency. However, hypocrisy was a prominent theme that emerged around COP26, with conspiracy theorist Joseph Paul Watson, political pundit James Melville and Andrew Neil, all highlighting the hypocrisy of world leaders with tweets that broke through the noise and performed exceptionally well.

Unfortunately for Boris Johnson, despite COP26 being his big moment on the international stage, Pope Francis and former US President Barack Obama received greater cut through. However, the most prominent tweet from any current or former world leader came from former Mexican President Felipe Calderón, whose tweet simply announcing the end of the opening ceremony outperformed every other world leader.

The Labour MP for Sefton Central, Bill Esterson, was the only current British politician to break into the top ten most engaged-with tweets. Unhelpfully for the Government, his tweet struck a chord with the Twittersphere, as he called out proposed cuts to air passenger duty and proposals for a new Cumbrian coal mine. Other than Esterton, only Nigel Farage, Caroline Lucas and David Lammy were able to make a serious dent in the overall Twitter conversation, with attacks that focused either on the Government, the hypocrisy of world leaders or mocking the Prime Minister.

Overall, our analysis of the Twitter conversations demonstrates the public is increasingly aware that changes to their lives are now a matter of when not if. Although the Government’s focus on climate change is important, the cut-through of social media centred around hypocrisy serves as a stark reminder that pursuing a green agenda promises to be a political minefield like few other policy issues encountered since the war.

#Data #Politics #SocialMedia

Under The Radar – 29 October

By Christian Wiediger for Unspash

This week, we discuss:

1. Amazon Win MI5 Contract

2. Eurostar London-Paris Route Faces Competition

3. Survey Finds Public Wants Net Zero Referendum

Amazon Win MI5 Contract

What Happened? The UK’s three intelligence agencies, GCHQ, MI5 and MI6, have reached an agreement with Amazon to host classified material on its cloud. The deal is estimated to be worth up to £1 billion over the next decade.

What does it mean?

In the new deal, Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud computing arm, will be used by UK security services as well as other government departments for purposes such as speech recognition. The CIA signed a similar $600m contract with Amazon in 2013.  The partnership will allow the agencies to use applications, such as speech recognition, that would be able to pick up specific voices from intercept recordings, thereby massively speeding up the ability to search for suspects. Ciaran Martin, Head of the National Cyber Security Centre said agencies would be able to retrieve information “in minutes, rather than in weeks and months.”  The tie up has not been without its controversy, however. Gus Hosein, executive director of Privacy International, called it “yet another worrying public-private partnership, agreed in secret”. Conor McGinn, the shadow security minister, has written to his government counterpart, demanding a parliamentary statement from Priti Patel to explain the possible security implications. Increasingly we are seeing a trend of big tech companies providing services to crucial state apparatus and departments, especially security and law enforcement. A question to consider is what the threshold is for when private involvement in public services becomes a security threat and what are the consequences? 

Eurostar’s London-Paris Route Faces Competition

What happened? Spanish train operator company Renfe plans to compete with Eurostar to operate trains running in the Eurotunnel between London and Paris.

What does this mean?

Eurostar has not previously faced competition to operate the route, despite the fact that they do not have a monopoly. However, with Renfe’s bid, an improvement in the service itself and revision of prices, could be on the table.

Prior to the pandemic, up to nine million passengers were travelling between London and Paris with Eurostar, however, train traffic declined sharply when lockdowns were implemented.

According to a Spanish news agency, the British owner and manager of the stations and track, HIS, and the British-French operator of the channel tunnel, Getlink, have both welcomed the prospect of Renfe putting in a bid. The company plans to use seven of its own trains, and hopes to operations to be profitable within four years.

Renfe’s bid comes at a time when the UK is looking to project the image of an economy focused on sustainability and climate consciousness. While Renfe is a Spanish company, HSI, Getlink, and the UK Government could leverage this opportunity to promote their climate-focused agendas. Additionally, improving train services between the UK and the continent would be good for UK-EU relations in a post-Brexit world, especially with the recent Budget’s focus on infrastructure investment in the economy. 

Survey Finds Public Wants Net Zero Referendum

What happened?

A new YouGov poll suggests the British public is in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero plans. The survey showed that, of those who expressed a preference, more than 50% of every category polled supported a referendum. What does it mean?

With Cop26, and the possibility of a more comprehensive global action plan on the table, much of the focus on net zero has understandably been geared towards achieving buy-in from other world leaders. The gravity of the changes required at a domestic level, however, means a political consensus on net zero may not be all that it seems.

Few will dispute that achieving net zero by 2050 will involve the implementation of significant measures, drastically impacting the daily lives of every voter in some way. Invariably, many of the measures will be widely unpopular. And that’s before tackling the considerable likelihood of further tax rises to fund such an undertaking.

Tory MPs have already expressed scepticism about the Government’s recent strategies, with the Net Zero Scrutiny Group already boasting roughly 40 MPs. Even if a strong level of parliamentary support enables the Prime Minister to push ahead with his green plans, the universal consensus from mainstream parties on net zero is arguably masking what is a more complex and fragmented public perception.

With YouGov’s poll showing support for a referendum from every group surveyed, could a new political battle soon be upon us?

This week’s must reads

1. ‘Why there could be trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak’ by Stephen Bush for The New Statesman

2. ‘This will end with President Tucker Carlson’ by Helen Lewis for The Atlantic 

3. ‘Facebook cannot moderate itself – its problems have only just begun’ by Chris Stoker-Walker for The Guardian

4. ‘The Tories are in serious danger of misreading the national mood’ by Janet Daley for The Telegraph

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