The Tories are experiencing the leadership blues

For those Tories who like their glasses half full, the current (and still expanding) roster of leadership candidates is a sign of strength.

Never liked Boris? Well, there’s Jeremy Hunt, who was kept out of Cabinet by Johnson after contesting the leadership in 2019, or Tom Tugendhat, the China-hawk who chairs the commons foreign affairs select committee. Did you love Boris, only to grow tired of his personal foibles? Enter big beasts Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Priti Patel, Nadhim Zahawi and Liz Truss, who each served in Johnson’s cabinet but appear to be made of morally sterner stuff. Think those former ministers are flawed? Try Penny Mordaunt or Grant Shapps. Think Boris went soft on Europe? Try Suella Braverman. Think Boris wasn’t ‘conservative’ enough? Have a drink of Kemi Badenoch. Think Johnson was too famous? Try Rehman Chishti (go on, have a Google).

The glass half-fullers will admire the diversity of the field. The Tory candidates truly come in all shapes, sizes, colours, and ideologies. Labour and the Lib Dems could only dream of such diversity.

Why, then, are some Tories glum? And no, we don’t mean Nadine Dorries, who is deep into her chardonnay wondering how her colleagues could be so mean toward Boris.

No, the reason why many on Team Blue are viewing the glass as half-empty is because leadership contests are inherently destabilising times for political parties. And if you doubt that, have a read of the weekend papers. Operation Sandbag Rishi is already in full effect. Or just ask Zahawi, who had to release a long statement defending his tax arrangements. Labour are munching their popcorn as the various factions of the Tory party tear each other apart.

The amount of dirt floating in the ether is a point in favour of a so-called ‘clean skin’ to take over. Many a head was turned when Cabinet big beast Michael Gove – one of the few Tories who knows how to grip a government department – endorsed the unknown Badenoch. Could the former junior minister pull off a huge upset? Well, the betting markets are narrowing their odds.

But is an inexperienced ‘clean skin’ really something the country can afford when facing our current parallel crises? Economic growth is stalled amidst the soaring inflation that is fueling a deepening cost-of-living crisis. We are at an impasse on Northern Ireland in the Brexit negotiations. And then there is Vladimir Putin and his ongoing pillage of Ukraine.

These times call for great statesmanship. Is there one in the current crop of leadership contenders? We have our doubts, so slot us in the glass half-empty category.

Red Bull Stuck in the Pits

Issue: Redbull’s (lack of) response to Nelson Piquet’s racist remarks

Three time Formula 1 Champion and former Brazilian driver Nelson Piquet made (undeniably) racist remarks about seven time World Champion Lewis Hamilton, referring to him as what translates to the n-word in English. Yikes.

At the time of writing, almost every team and driver in F1 has put out statements condemning racism in all forms and standing by Lewis Hamilton.

Context

Calling all F1 fans, old and new, cast your mind back to Summer 2021 and the ‘incident’ between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen at Silverstone which saw the Dutchman spin off the grid in a high-speed, highly dangerous fashion and which threw the Drivers Championship wide open and attracted much attention regarding Hamilton’s role in being “predominantly to blame for the incident”.

Now back to the present day – Nelson Piquet’s extremely derogatory comments about Hamilton’s role in the crash, made on a podcast appearance last year, have come to light. He also happens to be the father of Kelly Piquet who is, wait for it, the long-term girlfriend of 2021 champion Max Verstappen, the same Max Verstappen involved in the above situation.

For context, this is not the first time that Piquet has attracted unwanted attention. It was only last year that eyebrows were raised when he chauffeured the far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Independence Day. And back in his driving days he not only publicly questioned racing legend Ayrton Senna’s sexuality referring to him as “the Sao Paulo taxi driver” but also made offensive comments about British driver Nigel Mansell’s wife.

One guess for the team and driver who have yet to respond? That’s right, Red Bull and Max Verstappen have remained silent on the issue, despite the fact that Red Bull Racing just fired their reserve driver Juri Vips for using a racial slur during an online live stream…go figure.

The ‘line to take’

N/A

Line review

Our initial response: You should know better.

Well, considering we don’t need to break down tone, choice of words or length let’s turn to the obvious: is no response a good response? In this case, absolutely not.

While it is understandable that hitting out against your future father-in-law is an uncomfortable place to find oneself, it is no excuse to stay silent. Furthermore, for the Red Bull team, just because one of your drivers is dating this man’s daughter, you don’t get carte blanche to say nothing, particularly given past indiscretions.

Lest we forget the ‘Black Lives Matter’ and ‘End Racism’ campaign F1 championed in the 2020 season, where drivers and team members frequently sported shirts, badges, and even took the knee on occasion. Oh wait, that’s right Verstappen remained standing. Oh and wasn’t there that incident where Red Bull Racing had to fire three top executives, including their North America CEO Stefan Kozak, after a racist map of the world was displayed at a conference? Looks like it’s not just Piquet who has previous…

You would think that a company that has a poor track record (excuse the pun) when it comes to tackling racism would be desperate to demonstrate its credentials by facing the issue head on and spearheading the collective response. Perhaps they consider their weak statement after the firing of Vips as adequate fodder in neutralising the situation and acting as a blanket statement; killing two racist birds with one Pirelli sized stone without having to address the more inflammatory statement.

Well, we’ll tell you one thing for free, it hasn’t worked. Twitter is ablaze with F1 fans, and more importantly Red Bull/Verstappen fans, dismayed at the lack of an immediate response and even more so at the indication that there won’t be a statement at all. The clock is ticking; the more they delay, the more attention they draw to themselves and the worse the fallout gets.

It is needless to say that with the majority of teams and drivers rallying behind Hamilton, it could make for an interesting and possibly tense paddock at the upcoming Silverstone Grand Prix this weekend. It is almost guaranteed the press will hone in on Verstappen and Red Bull if they still haven’t made a statement by the weekend. Watch this space to see how they respond under pressure.

Line rating:

Blinder

Strong

Does the job

Problematic

Piss poor ✅

By-election Bruising Sends Boris Back to the Drawing Board

While Wakefield’s return to Labour is a blow for the Tories, Tiverton’s swing will sting the most, given it is the largest majority in history to be lost at a by-election. Oliver Dowden’s resignation as party chairman has intensified calls for the Prime Minister’s head, but if there’s anything we’ve learned from Partygate, it’s that Boris Johnson has never heard of the phrase ‘do the honourable thing’. 

Team Boris tried their best to change the pre-by-election rhetoric by leaning into the strike chaos. They rather strangely blamed it on Labour, harkening back to the 1970s. Much to Johnson’s dismay this didn’t cut through. Most people are conscious of the fact that Labour haven’t been in power for over ten years. The 1970s scaremongering hasn’t worked because the majority of the population simply aren’t old enough to remember it. This strategy stank of desperation and was torn apart live on air, day after day this week by the straight-talking RMT leader Mick Lynch. Lynch eviscerated every MP and interviewer unlucky enough to be put in front of of him. If strikes do become a common theme in the coming months, Lynch could become a prominent thorn in Johnson’s side. In some good news for the PM, Lynch would be just as big a thorn for Starmer as well. Maybe the Labour leader could learn a thing or two from Lynch about how not to be boring. 

What next, then, for Boris? He has always maintained strong support from his cabinet but were key ministers to follow Dowden in resigning and call for the PM to step down then that could be enough to convince Johnson that his time is, finally, up.  Without a no confidence vote in the short term, however, there is always the chance that he may try to hang on further.

In the immediate future, after next week’s G7 Summit, you’d get good odds on a Cabinet reshuffle. A reshuffle would give the illusion of change, with junior minister roles filled by Gullis-esque Johnsonian backbenchers, promised jobs in return for their support during the recent post-jubilee coup attempt, as well as one or two big name shifts, dependent on further cabinet resignations. This won’t be enough on its own, however. The messaging will be key and that’s what’s been sorely lacking.

In this morning’s media rounds Tory MPs have been blaming the poor results on the cost of living crisis. This begs the question as to why they haven’t really done much about it yet? If the answers are so obvious then maybe action would be better than complete paralysis in the face of the highest inflation seen for thirty years and spiralling energy prices. Absent any progress on the cost of living, the risk for Johnson of a Conservative Party rule change to force another confidence vote becomes much more real. The Rwanda policy blew up in his face, the housing reforms have fallen flat and more controversies have mounted. The potential Summer of Strikes ahead would beleaguer the government and maintain the pressure. Without a clear message cutting through and with the very real prospect of losing their seats in the next election, many previously wavering MPs will switch camps in the next confidence vote. The protracted death of the Johnson regime continues.